Congrats to those scrappy D.C. hockey players, who have produced one of the few happy headlines out of our nation’s capital lately.
The Washington Capitals never won a Stanley Cup under @BarackObama.
Congrats @realDonaldTrump you win again.
— Ramp Capital♿️ (@RampCapitalLLC) June 8, 2018
But in markets, the mood is risk-off, with worried investors running for the exit as Trump hits Twitter with a fusillade of trade barbs aimed at former friends Canada and France. Trump himself, who loves nothing more than a win, is leaving the G-7 summit early, setting the whole event in Quebec up for failure.
Prime Minister Trudeau is being so indignant, bringing up the relationship that the U.S. and Canada had over the many years and all sorts of other things…but he doesn’t bring up the fact that they charge us up to 300% on dairy — hurting our Farmers, killing our Agriculture!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 7, 2018
Attempting to calm your nerves is our call of the day, from Guild Investment Management. The folks there explain why they think U.S. stocks are the best investment right now — and why they won’t get derailed by a trade mess.
“U.S. trade policy will produce results; over the summer there will be volatility, and eventually, progress,” say Monty Guild and his team of strategists in a summer strategy note.
“Why? Because a real trade war would be negative for everyone, and the world — which runs an $800 billion annual trade surplus with the U.S.— will be more than happy to maintain a $500 billion trade surplus,” Guild’s chief investment officer tells clients.
Trading partners will complain and make false accusations against the U.S. for imagined misdeeds, but will settle in the end and be grateful to maintain a still-positive trade position with the U.S., he predicts.
Guild points to the strong earnings growth and not-too-pricey valuations for U.S. stocks, backed up by a strong economy.
“The pessimist case for slow growth in the U.S. has been substantially wrong so far, and we believe it will continue to be wrong,” he says, providing this chart:
As for stocks in the rest of the world, Guild warns against Europe and its banking problems. Within emerging markets, the team likes Asian economies with growth based on manufacturing or tech expertise but not those that produce raw materials, owing to a pricey dollar.
And for Latin America, pick and choose a way through, says Guild, who thinks Argentina looks the best of a messy lot. See the chart of the day for more on emerging markets headaches, which are adding to the worry list for investors.
and Nasdaq Composite
are all moving lower this am. Asia
was also hurting, as were European stocks
is rising on those global jitters, while gold
and crude oil
Check out the Market Snapshot column for more.
Emerging markets woes have been popping up on the radar. One trouble spot, Argentina ,reached a $50 billion bailout deal with the IMF last night.
Our chart of the day from The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Shot shows how pressure has been growing for currencies in the region:
Some traders blamed Thursday’s big drop for the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
on investors fleeing to safety after a meltdown for Brazil’s Bovespa
stock market and real
Fears of higher U.S. and European interest rates are being blamed for those woes. Both the Fed and the ECB are holding policy meetings next week, meaning nerves may get rattled further in coming days.
Dear US Federal Reserve,
Removed just a paltry $19B off your $4.49T balance sheet and at the same time blew up the global emerging markets, NOT a good trade. End your experiment now.
Signed India, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, S Africa, Mr. who’s next? pic.twitter.com/yDb7fBhDlG
— Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) June 8, 2018
“Take down your tariffs & barriers or we will more than match you!” That was Trump, tweeting away last night as the fur flies ahead of the G-6-plus-1 summit. It won’t go down well that POTUS plans to ditch that meeting early, to head for his get-together with North Korea’s leader.
is getting creamed and weighing on techs after a report that the company is readying for a 20% haircut on iPhone shipments for new devices launching later this year.
Meanwhile, China hawks in Congress aren’t finished fighting the White House’s bid to lift the bar on ZTE, with a late-night move to try to undo that deal.
has named Hans Vestberg as its new CEO. Meanwhile, watch U.S.-listed shares of BT
, after CEO Gavin Patterson was eased out at the U.K. telecoms giant.
Ant Financial has raised $14 billion from private investors. That values Jack Ma’s fintech carve-out at around $150 billion, making it one of the world’s most valuable privately held companies.
and Stitch Fix
shares could log gains after upbeat results late Thursday.
There’s talk troubled Deutsche Bank
is exploring a merger with fellow German lender Commerzbank
And Japan’s Takeda Pharmaceutical
say it has secured a $7.5 billion loan to help fund that Shire
is back in the headlines after admitting some user posts accidentally went public in May. It says the social-network glitch has been fixed.
In economic data, the only top-tier report is wholesale inventories this morning. But next week heats up with that Fed meeting, as well as updates on consumer prices and retail sales.
“The suicides of Anthony Bourdain and Kate Spade this week are a reminder: No matter how successful, wealthy or seemingly happy you are, we all battle our own demons.” — That was Chris Cillizza, journalist and political commentator for CNN, mourning the loss of rock-star chef Bourdain, dead at 61.
Cillizza went on to urge people to “Reach out to one another. Destigmatize depression, addiction and anxiety. We are all in this together,” as tributes to CNN star and author Bourdain poured in over Twitter. According to the CDC suicide rates in the U.S. are up 30% since the 1990s.
Tragic news this morning. Anthony Bourdain is dead at 61 of suicide. He took us around the world and back, showing us how we all eat, live and love — and revealing our common humanity. RIP to a true giant. We will miss you. https://t.co/Wp0KkNpkW9
— Jeremy Diamond (@JDiamond1) June 8, 2018
— Marta Dhanis (@MartaDhanis) June 8, 2018
A veteran Senate staffer is in trouble over allegedly leaking classified material
The Capitols are celebrating in the capital after that Stanley Cup victory
— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) June 8, 2018
A firsthand look at the agony of immigrant kids being separated from their families in the U.S.
Tennessee hardware store back in the spotlight over its “No Gays Allowed” sign
UPDATE: Knoxville's WBIR, which returned to interview the store owner, has updated its story and now says the 'No Gays Allowed' sign has been in the window for ALL THREE YEARS since it first went up in 2015. https://t.co/uKZZ16bWKF
— Mary Emily O’Hara (@MaryEmilyOHara) June 7, 2018
Hawaii volcano survivor filmed her pistol-packing neighbor
A sad, desperate fight in the wild
This orangutan tried to fight off a bulldozer nears its forest home pic.twitter.com/8gX8EETK44
— NowThis (@nowthisnews) June 6, 2018
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